Business
Markets, options and derivatives — calls, puts, futures and the flows that move them.
The Stock Market Is Doing Something Observed Only Once Before. History Is Clear About What Comes Next.
Despite recent market rallies, a key valuation metric, the S&P 500 Shiller Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) ratio, has remained above 40 since May, a level only seen once before in history during the dot-com bubble. This suggests that stocks are unusually richly valued, potentially signaling an impending market downturn. While not a definitive predictor, historical patterns indicate that stock prices tend to fall in the years following such peaks.
Oil Rebounds From Three-week Lows As US-Iran Talks Remain Uncertain
Oil prices rebounded on Tuesday after reaching a three-week low the previous day, driven by uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran peace negotiations. While the U.S. President indicated ongoing talks and a "last chance" for an agreement, Tehran denied direct negotiations, stating discussions were only with Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Regional tensions were further heightened by a cargo vessel being struck near Oman, raising concerns about potential supply disruptions.
Saudi Aramco Q2 Earnings Rise; Declares Dividend
Saudi Aramco reported a significant increase in net income for the second quarter of 2026, rising to $32.40 billion from $22.84 billion in the previous year. This growth was attributed to geopolitical uncertainty driving energy market volatility, partially mitigated by the company's robust business model. The company also declared a base dividend of $21.9 billion for the quarter.
15% Of Israel Englander's $240 Billion Millennium Portfolio Sits in Just 10 Stocks
Israel Englander's Millennium Management, a hedge fund with 5,622 holdings, has approximately 15% of its $240 billion portfolio concentrated in just 10 stocks. These top holdings include S&P 500 ETFs, as well as major tech companies like Nvidia, Apple, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft, alongside Norfolk Southern, Warner Bros. Discovery, and Electronic Arts. Despite the concentration, the inclusion of S&P 500 ETFs provides significant underlying diversification.
Strategy To YieldBoost MEI From 1.4% To 26.1% Using Options
This article outlines an options strategy to increase the yield on Methode Electronics Inc. (MEI) from 1.4% to 26.1%. It discusses using a covered call strategy with a January 2027 $22.50 strike price, considering the stock's historical volatility and dividend history. The article also touches on broader S&P 500 options trading volume, noting a preference for calls.
Musk went to “war,” sought jail time for X ad boycotts—but case ends with a whimper
Elon Musk has settled his lawsuit against advertisers whom he accused of illegally boycotting X, his social media platform. The settlement, which includes the permanent disbandment of the Global Alliance for Responsible Media (GARM), aims to reset the relationship between X and advertisers. This resolution comes after a court ruled the ad boycott was legal and X's antitrust claims lacked proof.
U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Rebound Slightly Less Than Expected
First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits rose slightly to 197,000 in the week ended July 25th, a modest rebound of 9,000 from the previous week. This figure was slightly less than the 200,000 economists had anticipated. The low level of claims indicates a strong labor market with a low layoff rate.
Gold Marginally Higher Ahead Of PCE Price Data
Gold prices saw little change as investors reacted to escalating Middle East tensions and considered the future of U.S. monetary policy. The dollar stabilized after weakening, and U.S. Treasury yields remained high as attention turned to upcoming PCE price data for inflation insights. Brent crude futures also rose due to increased U.S. strikes on Iran, intensifying regional conflict.
Oracle Stock Just Hit a 52-Week Low. Is It Time to Give Up, or a Long-Term Buying Opportunity?
Oracle's stock has fallen to a 52-week low, down 63% from its September peak, due to investor concerns over the company's substantial capital expenditure on AI infrastructure. Despite these worries and recent layoffs, analysts largely maintain a "strong buy" rating, anticipating significant growth in the AI infrastructure market and Oracle's revenue in the coming years. The article suggests that the current stock weakness might be a long-term buying opportunity, as the AI business is robust and Oracle is well-positioned to capture a significant market share.